Are We "Lucky Enough"?!

The world is going to hell, and we are "broadcasting it live" here on the blockchain... The Japanese stock market went to hell this morning, taking both the Taiwanese and South Korean markets with it. Some people didn't even know that Taiwan had a stock market...

The American stock market just opened, and it's all blood and tears. I guess Warren Buffet knew something when he sold half of his Apple holdings back a few days ago. Bitcoin took a hit as well...

I mean, what would you expect from it... The decoupling we were waiting for isn't going to come any time soon. The lowest low thus far has been $49,000, and we don't know yet if this was the bottom before the massive reversal or if there's more blood to come. The FED is scheduled to have an emergency meeting, and I guess they had to somehow realize they broke something by keeping interest rates so high for so long.

The whole drama (market bleeding combined with war tensions) reminds me of 2020. Personally, I have pretty much the same sentiment today as I did back in 2020 when the lockdowns were announced, and the markets went to hell. Bitcoin went from $8,000 to $4,000 in just a few days, and before the end of that year, it reached as high as $18,000.

If history repeats itself, then we're on the cusp of a massive reversal. The conditions aren't that similar, but despite all the bleeding, I believe the bull market isn't over yet. If I'm wrong, this would be the first cycle when BTC peaks before the halving and enters a bear market a few months after.

Makes no sense to me. And if that happens, I'll be forced to leave the country once again and start looking for shitty jobs because living off crypto would become impossible. It's already hard, but based on the premise that this is just a shake-out event and the uptrend will resume, I'm expecting my pain to reverse.

I've learned a lot in the past few months about greed. It's personally taken over my judgment, and it kept me from taking some profits back in February-March when I should have. Having so many unfulfilled desires and needs made me blind to reality and refuse to see what was happening.

In hindsight, it was obvious BTC would moon in a couple of months and that it wouldn't do that before the halving, so I should've played safe and put some cash aside for times like these. But I was needy and greedy, and here I am trying to cut expenses and somehow make it until the end of the year when probably the real bull run will kick in.

A few hundred billion dollars have been wiped out from the crypto market over the course of a few hours (less than a day), and that's a powerful lesson: shit can and will hit the fan in an instant, and that's highly important to secure profits when you have them. Otherwise, your portfolio value at this time is nothing more but a number on a screen.

NO INTRINSIC VALUE. Will say it again: the current market condition reminds me so much of spring 2020 when I was selling ETH for $200 while keeping cash reserves under the mattress because I was so scared about the world going to hell. One year later, ETH reached $4,000. Choices, choices, choices...

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian